People tend to get way too doomer on twitter about every little slight negative thing. They were doing white pills when the skyroot launch happened and they're now suddenly blackpilling because BJP took the L. Reality is, the general elections are 3 years away and anything can happen in that time. This cjp protest is unlikely to decide anything in the long run, especially considering the bulk of the protests were concentrated around Delhi. The rest of the country only saw some sporadic events.
Regardless, this protest and the way it was handled may have been a major international soft power win for us.
Spot on piece. Closing off pressure valves always backfires. When urban infrastructure breaks and youth job prospects freeze, household frustration builds fast on the shop floor. Top-down political messaging can't paper over missing delivery rails. Over at substack.com/@electoralindex , we map these exact sub-regional discontent vectors. Standard polling flattens youth anger into general noise, but local civic breakdown decides elections. Loved this breakdown!
Points number 1 and 2 hold true assuming the protests were organically organised (they weren't).
Also, Indian Political Commentary suffers from a Delhi bias. All you got to do to make a name for yourself politically is to hold Delhi hostage. Does that translate into votes? I believe not. Much was said on how Farm Laws fiasco will dent the BJP in UP 2022. Nothing much happened.
Then there were anti-Hindu slogans raised in the protest but the CJP folks were quick to distance themselves from it.
I believe the government hasn't entirely capitulated. The protest ending will give them more space to go after the Urban Naxals. Congress will suffer because it is the latest Communist Party in India.
As for AAP who backed the CJP, protesting also doesn't translate to votes as they've seen but refuse to accept.
It will, but not by much. Bureucracy is corrupt to core but a necessary evil. You cannot rip away the bandaid too soon. If you do that than you loose govt employees support and their families. Its a catch 22 situation even if the messaging is there its followed very rarely at bottom.
Bureaucracy is corrupt in the main and non- involved. Plus your analysis misses the fact that there is a considerable amount of funding from external Western intel agencies and one does find truth in the accusations of CIA involvement in CJP leadership.The government was slow to react, casual in approach and Intel inputs were not taken. It should have removed the Min much before.
Having grown up with 35 plus years of Left rule in my state in India, I should think the need is for another Right wing party. Like the Swatantra Party. Not more of the Left. If Gen Z thinks adopting more Leftism and Woke nonsense is a panacea it's so ignorant that India will be headed for destruction.
I bet you anything that no big economic reforms will happen until 2029. Modi has shown again and again that he isn't going to risk losing even a few seats or a couple of state elections for India's economic future. Hopefully Delimitation helps BJP win big in 2029 which gives him more leg room for reforms. Alas 5 more years wasted !
I haven't been following this at all. but is this whole thing mainly about the NEET paper being leaked? I get that there are many legitimate complaints that contributed to a ground swell of dissatisfaction, especially the horrendous state of our big cities, but this seems like a somewhat weak sauce issue to rally around. The AIEEE paper in my year(2011) also got leaked and I think we just gave the exam on the day that we were asked to. and I imagine fewer people take the NEET than the AIEEE? not to be dismissive or anything.
People tend to get way too doomer on twitter about every little slight negative thing. They were doing white pills when the skyroot launch happened and they're now suddenly blackpilling because BJP took the L. Reality is, the general elections are 3 years away and anything can happen in that time. This cjp protest is unlikely to decide anything in the long run, especially considering the bulk of the protests were concentrated around Delhi. The rest of the country only saw some sporadic events.
Regardless, this protest and the way it was handled may have been a major international soft power win for us.
Spot on piece. Closing off pressure valves always backfires. When urban infrastructure breaks and youth job prospects freeze, household frustration builds fast on the shop floor. Top-down political messaging can't paper over missing delivery rails. Over at substack.com/@electoralindex , we map these exact sub-regional discontent vectors. Standard polling flattens youth anger into general noise, but local civic breakdown decides elections. Loved this breakdown!
Points number 1 and 2 hold true assuming the protests were organically organised (they weren't).
Also, Indian Political Commentary suffers from a Delhi bias. All you got to do to make a name for yourself politically is to hold Delhi hostage. Does that translate into votes? I believe not. Much was said on how Farm Laws fiasco will dent the BJP in UP 2022. Nothing much happened.
Then there were anti-Hindu slogans raised in the protest but the CJP folks were quick to distance themselves from it.
I believe the government hasn't entirely capitulated. The protest ending will give them more space to go after the Urban Naxals. Congress will suffer because it is the latest Communist Party in India.
As for AAP who backed the CJP, protesting also doesn't translate to votes as they've seen but refuse to accept.
It will, but not by much. Bureucracy is corrupt to core but a necessary evil. You cannot rip away the bandaid too soon. If you do that than you loose govt employees support and their families. Its a catch 22 situation even if the messaging is there its followed very rarely at bottom.
Good points, but-
Bureaucracy is corrupt in the main and non- involved. Plus your analysis misses the fact that there is a considerable amount of funding from external Western intel agencies and one does find truth in the accusations of CIA involvement in CJP leadership.The government was slow to react, casual in approach and Intel inputs were not taken. It should have removed the Min much before.
Having grown up with 35 plus years of Left rule in my state in India, I should think the need is for another Right wing party. Like the Swatantra Party. Not more of the Left. If Gen Z thinks adopting more Leftism and Woke nonsense is a panacea it's so ignorant that India will be headed for destruction.
I bet you anything that no big economic reforms will happen until 2029. Modi has shown again and again that he isn't going to risk losing even a few seats or a couple of state elections for India's economic future. Hopefully Delimitation helps BJP win big in 2029 which gives him more leg room for reforms. Alas 5 more years wasted !
I haven't been following this at all. but is this whole thing mainly about the NEET paper being leaked? I get that there are many legitimate complaints that contributed to a ground swell of dissatisfaction, especially the horrendous state of our big cities, but this seems like a somewhat weak sauce issue to rally around. The AIEEE paper in my year(2011) also got leaked and I think we just gave the exam on the day that we were asked to. and I imagine fewer people take the NEET than the AIEEE? not to be dismissive or anything.
It could, I think it is just that the movement seemed apolitical at first. I don't have anything to back this up other than vibes.
https://substack.com/@mitalikajla/note/p-208599088?r=28sm4u
Expecting a detailed post on FCRA
Soon, will have to do some research on it!