I like this a lot because it argues for reforms that are just good, with or without Trump tariffs.
I'm glad it's not one of those pieces arguing for some specific benefit from a particular policy in another country (US tariffs, in this case). Those never work because: i) the policy environment can change rapidly (100x more volatile given Trump), ii) it's pointless to expect that govt can pick the right sectors & winners, etc.; it's a recipe for cronyism.
Yeah, my hope is that this catalyst can be used for much needed reforms. It's much easier to sell reforms when you show that the international situation warrants for it.
Your last point about government not being able to pick winners is true. But I've been doing a lot of reading on industrial policy lately. What I've come to realize is that government doesn't need to pick winners, it just needs to be able to let losers go. To be clear, that's hard too.
I'll be expanding on this in my next post too. So hopefully my arguments are strong, or we can have a good debate in the comments :)
I like this a lot because it argues for reforms that are just good, with or without Trump tariffs.
I'm glad it's not one of those pieces arguing for some specific benefit from a particular policy in another country (US tariffs, in this case). Those never work because: i) the policy environment can change rapidly (100x more volatile given Trump), ii) it's pointless to expect that govt can pick the right sectors & winners, etc.; it's a recipe for cronyism.
Thank you!
Yeah, my hope is that this catalyst can be used for much needed reforms. It's much easier to sell reforms when you show that the international situation warrants for it.
Your last point about government not being able to pick winners is true. But I've been doing a lot of reading on industrial policy lately. What I've come to realize is that government doesn't need to pick winners, it just needs to be able to let losers go. To be clear, that's hard too.
I'll be expanding on this in my next post too. So hopefully my arguments are strong, or we can have a good debate in the comments :)
Looking forward!
Also, Surjit Bhalla wrote something along the same lines as your piece. Sharing in case you haven't seen this yet :)
I had not! Thanks for sharing. Good to know that I'm on the right track, haha!
Maybe he saw my post, lol.
Wise predictions
Great researcher write up 👍🏻
Great analysis
Thanks for reading!
What about the off shored IT services. They are mainly run out of India for American companies. Services Watson services
Services are essential exports, but they're often capital intensive, not labor intensive. For now, they've escaped Trump's tariffs.
India needs to get good labor intensive industries to really leapfrog ahead.
Rohit, I know it’s India tcs ~ 500 000 plus, Cognisant ~ 250 000, accenture ~ 250 000, Infosys ~ 260 000, Wipro & HCL ~ 100 000 each that only the bigger ones